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☆ The Harvard economics PhD whiz who is teaching generative AI to invest for everyone
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-06 | by ( Kiley Lambert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Szilagyi has the record for the fastest-ever Harvard Economics Ph.D. (2.5 years), studying under Ken Rogoff. In addition to his economics Ph.D., Szilagyi holds BA and MA degrees in mathematics and economics from Yale. Szilagyi: Toggle is a generative AI startup that sits squarely at the intersection of finance and artificial intelligence. Toggle AI was really born from observing the ever-mounting flow of financial data that we needed to track. Thanks to his support, Toggle AI took off with a mission to provide every investor and advisor with powerful AI tools in an easy-to-navigate, chat interface.

Persons: Jan Szilagyi, Szilagyi, Stanley Druckenmiller, Lombard Odier, Ken Rogoff, Giuseppe Sette, Druckenmiller Organizations: Duquesne Capital, Lombard, Harvard, Yale, CNBC, Summit, Microsoft, Duquesne Locations: Szilagyi, Lombard

ET (1900 GMT), to discuss the debt ceiling bill. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields fell about 10 basis points (bps) to 3.72%, while thirty-year yields fell 8 basis points to 3.90%. "What is currently happening since yesterday shows where the debt ceiling premium was actually priced: mostly in bonds," said Ielpo. The cost of insuring exposure to a U.S. debt default meanwhile fell. "I wouldn’t blame the Treasury rally on the debt ceiling deal necessarily... the additional T-bill issuance, quantitative tightening, and difficult bank funding conditions now conspire to less favourable financing conditions to the economy," said Bouvet.

[1/2] The German share price index DAX graph is pictured at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, May 26, 2023. U.S. President Joe Biden and top congressional Republican Kevin McCarthy reached a tentative deal on Saturday to raise the federal government's $31.4 trillion debt ceiling, aiming to stop the U.S. from defaulting on its debt. The deal is expected to provide only short-term relief for markets, as worries linger about inflation and further rate increases. European stock indexes initially opened higher, then faltered, with Europe's STOXX 600 down 0.1% on the day (.STOXX). If the debt ceiling deal passes through Congress, then market attention will return to the U.S. Federal Reserve's plans for rates, according to Samy Chaar, chief economist at Lombard Odier.

☆ Analysis: Investors see trouble ahead after Europe's stellar first quarter
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Joice Alves | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Europe's largest listed company LVMH (LVMH.PA) produced stellar sales as China rebounded sharply after COVID restrictions ended. The robust corporate margins on show in the first quarter are seen coming under pressure later in the year. Based on Refinitiv I/B/E/S estimates, STOXX 600 companies are expected to report net profit margins of 11.4% in the first quarter, up from 10.2% in the last quarter of 2022. But margins are seen declining to 10.5% in the third quarter, according to Refinitiv estimates. But there has not been a wave of companies revising earnings forecasts down, providing a cushion for European equities.

☆ Investors see trouble ahead after Europe's stellar first quarter
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Joice Alves | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

LONDON, April 19 (Reuters) - If a mega Western recession is coming down the pike in the second half of this year, someone should point it out to the junk bond market. The investment herd seems more convinced than ever that recession is on the way amid tightening bank credit after the March bank stress - even if not all the incoming evidence supports that take. More than a third now see the biggest risk ahead as a bank credit crunch and global recession. And that's with junk spreads more than three times higher than quality corporates. U.S. and European junk bond spreads historicallyBank of America survey on investment grade bonds vs junkCOURAGE AND DECOMPRESSIONThere's little doubt than many investors want to steer well clear, for now at least.

☆ Explainer: Why European money market funds inflows are lagging behind the U.S. torrent?
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Harry Robertson | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

[1/2] U.S. dollar and Euro bank notes are photographed in Frankfurt, Germany, in this illustration picture taken May 7, 2017. In Europe, investors put 17.7 billion euros ($19.35 billion) into euro-denominated money market funds in March, Refinitiv Lipper data shows, when the Credit Suisse crisis rocked markets. Other analysts said it was due to the fact that euro money market funds are underdeveloped relative to U.S. funds and are focused more on private sector, particularly bank, debt. WHAT IS A MONEY MARKET FUND? The European money market fund sector is far smaller than in the United States.

LONDON, April 6 (Reuters) - Banking sector turmoil has not dented demand for equities, with MSCI's world stock index up 7% so far this year. But under the surface, bad omens for world stocks are building. Central bank surveys show U.S. and European banks are already tightening lending standards, historically a predictor of dismal stock market performance. Credit tightening predicts poor stock market returns2/ MANUFACTURING SLOWDOWNRecessions starting in the United States tend to flow to the rest of the world and consequently global stocks. Seven mega-cap tech stocks were responsible for 92% of the S&P 500's first-quarter rise, Citi notes.

☆ Cautious calm returns to bank stocks as focus shifts to regulation
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Focus is also shifting to the possibility of tighter regulation in the U.S. banking sector, particularly for mid-tier banks like SVB (SIVB.O) and New York-based Signature Bank, whose collapses last week roiled financial markets. Investors had been particularly concerned about the huge bond holdings, particularly in U.S. Treasuries, of Japanese lenders. However, Japanese finance minister Shunichi Suzuki said on Wednesday differences in the structure of bank deposits, meant local banks wouldn't face incidents similar to SVB's collapse. In an attempt to avert a similar crisis down the line, the Federal Reserve is also considering tougher rules and oversight for midsize banks similar in size to SVB. "A year after starting to raise interest rates, the Federal Reserve is still chasing evidence that higher borrowing costs are slowing the U.S.

LONDON, March 15 (Reuters) - Central banks juggling inflation and financial stability mandates are prompting the wildest swings in bedrock government bonds for over a decade and a surge in volatility that may end up causing problems of its own. "The Fed and other central bankers have lost the luxury of focusing singularly on the fight against inflation," said Manulife Investment Management's Frances Donald. If the history of banking crashes and related credit crunches show them to be deflationary anyway, then many argue a central bank pause now may be the wisest choice. "The Fed is now fighting inflation as well as potential financial contagion," Lombard Odier Chief Investment Officer Stéphane Monier said. The first sign of regional bank stock calm on Tuesday, alongside the sticky core inflation readings for February, prompted a build-back of some bets for one last hike from each central bank.

☆ Quotes: Global banks under pressure as SVB triggers contagion worries
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

LONDON, March 14 (Reuters) - The health of the global banking sector as interest rates rise remained in the spotlight on Tuesday in the wake of the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB). But days of wild swings in global markets and hefty losses in bank shares, left the outlook for the sector in focus. Banks are now faced with the classic problem that has threatened banks throughout history: a mismatch in terms between assets and liabilities." Hopefully we'll go over the next few days, whether or not the financial system is going to calm down or not. "It’s been an indiscriminate sell off in banking stocks, the financial sector repriced everywhere.

SummarySummary Companies Tech bank's troubles panic marketsFears spread over fallout from rising interest ratesBanks vulnerable as bond values dropLONDON, March 10 (Reuters) - For months, investors had shrugged off the threat of rising interest rates. In SVB's case, venture capital clients, unable to raise cash elsewhere, pulled money from the bank, forcing its hasty sale of bonds at a loss. In February, U.S. regulators said U.S. banks had unrealised losses of more than $620 billion on securities, underscoring the scale of the risks. Jason Benowitz, senior portfolio manager at CI Roosevelt, said SVB's risks were not unique with many banks sitting on such unrealised losses because rates have moved so rapidly. "The SVB situation is a reminder that many institutions are sitting on large unrealised losses," said AJ Bell investment research director Russ Mould.

☆ We need to accept short-term pain for a brighter economic future, investment manager says
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe need to accept short-term pain for a brighter economic future, investment manager saysNathalia Barazal, co-head at Lombard Odier Investment Managers, discusses the Federal Reserve's mission to fight inflation.

☆ Analysis: Boom in European bank earnings hints at a rally with legs
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( Joice Alves | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The euro zone is expected to stagnate rather than contract, while cost of borrowing is still rising. The European Central Bank's campaign to raise interest rates as it fights to bring inflation back to its 2% target has been a boon for euro zone lenders. In the meantime, euro zone lenders' earnings per share (EPS) have surged to their highest since the global financial crisis in 2008. In the United State, where the rate cycle is more advanced, there's less potential for earnings upgrades at this point, she said. Earnings euro zone banks($1 = 0.9408 euros)Reporting by Joice Alves and additional reporting by Samuel Indyk in London; editing by Amanda Cooper and Sharon SingletonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Markets bracing for 'no landing' world economy scenario curb risk appetite
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Naomi Rovnick | Davide Barbuscia | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

LONDON/NEW YORK (Reuters) - Markets, bracing for a “no landing” scenario where global economic growth is resilient and inflation stays higher for longer, are dialling back appetite for both risk assets and government debt. But recent data reflecting still tight jobs markets has traders entertaining a new scenario where economic growth holds up and inflation remains sticky. “We’ve gone from softer landing to no landing - no landing being that (financing) conditions will remain tight,” said David Katimbo-Mugwanya, head of fixed income at EdenTree Asset Management. GOODBYE RECESSION RISK? Graphic: Economic growth forecasts turn high hereEuro zone recession expectations mostly faded in mid January as energy prices tumbled.

But recent data reflecting still tight jobs markets has traders entertaining a new scenario where economic growth holds up and inflation remains sticky. World stocks hit one-month lows on Wednesday, while Wall Street had its worst day of the year so far on Tuesday. "We've gone from softer landing to no landing - no landing being that (financing) conditions will remain tight," said David Katimbo-Mugwanya, head of fixed income at EdenTree Asset Management. Bond prices fall, and yields rise, when expectations of higher rates on cash make their fixed interest payments less appealing. Reuters GraphicsEuro zone recession expectations mostly faded in mid January as energy prices tumbled.

☆ We're focused on the 'quality part' of the tech sector, says Swiss private bank
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe're focused on the 'quality part' of the tech sector, says Swiss private bankStephane Monier of Lombard Odier says that's because "we still think there is a chance of a recession."

European stocks have vastly outperformed their U.S. peers. The euro STOXX (.STOXXE) benchmark has beaten its U.S. peer, the S&P 500 (.SPX), by over 18 percentage points since September. "It's a very big move in European gas prices and that has dramatically improved the outlook. "Lower gas prices are surely a positive, but their rapid fall also tell us that they can rise just as fast should things go wrong. A closely watched index of European corporate credit (.MERER00) has seen its yield fall nearly 50 basis points this year.

☆ When it comes to the energy transition, one analyst sees the market making a big mistake
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( Anmar Frangoul | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Thomas Hohne-Sparborth, head of sustainability research at Lombard Odier, highlighted the huge shifts taking place in the field of low and zero-carbon technologies and, by extension, wider society. "We've seen past industrial revolutions, including past energy transitions," Hohne-Sparborth said. We were, Hohne-Sparborth said, "looking at investment needs in the trillions of dollars." When it comes to the energy transition, the sums being discussed are indeed significant. Last year, the International Energy Agency's "World Energy Outlook 2022" report said clean energy investment could be on course to exceed $2 trillion per year by 2030, an increase of over 50% compared to today.

☆ Lombard Odier on the 'complete transformation' of our economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailLombard Odier's head of sustainability research on the 'transformation of our entire economy'Thomas Hohne-Sparborth made his comments during a CNBC panel discussion at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

☆ Analyst talks clean energy, the pace of change and lessons the market can learn from history
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailAnalyst talks clean energy, the pace of change and lessons the market can learn from historyThomas Hohne-Sparborth, head of sustainability research at Lombard Odier, made his comments during a CNBC panel discussion at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

☆ How to play the Fed's moves in 2023
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHow to play the Fed's moves in 2023Sammy Chaar, chief economist at Lombard Odier, discusses what the U.S. Federal Reserve might do in 2023 and how investors should be positioned.

☆ ECB delivers fourth straight increase but slows pace
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( Reuters Staff | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

COMMENTS:FLORIAN HENSE, SENIOR ECONOMIST, UNION INVESTMENT, FRANKFURT”This is probably the most hawkish 50 basis points they could come up with. Everything I read in the statement press release sounds hawkish and maybe even “very hawkish” to me. However, core inflation momentum remains firm and the labour market tight.”MARCHEL ALEXANDROVICH, EUROPEAN ECONOMIST, SALTMARSH ECONOMICS, LONDON:“It (the ECB statement) is very hawkish. “The 50 bps hike was expected and the pace of QT (quantitative tightening) was in the ballpark of what folks were expecting. “Even though the ECB is now going at it a bit slower, that doesn’t necessarily mean that they’re also going to target a lower terminal rate.

LONDON, Dec 14 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve, investment world and wider economy now have a major sequencing problem. With headline annual CPI ebbing to 7.1% last month, and core rates undershooting forecasts too to just 6.0%, most economists seem confident inflation did indeed peak around midyear. Equivalent public readings from New York Fed surveys are on the wane too. Fed Futures See Lower Rates End-23Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics"TAIL SCENARIO"Sounding something of a klaxon for most asset markets after the CPI number, the peak or terminal Fed funds rate that futures markets implied by May was dragged firmly back below 5%. Apart from verbal guidance, one important signal markets will watch on Wednesday will be the Fed's economic projections that include policy rate assumptions for the year.

☆ Lombard Odier: Rates high enough for U.S. to avoid hard landing
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailLombard Odier: Rates high enough for U.S. to avoid hard landingFlorian Ielpo, head of macro at Lombard Odier, discusses the company's 2023 outlook for the Federal Reserve and U.S. economy.

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